Europe’s choice

*By Dharmendra Kanani

The flat earth believers are back. Within a matter of weeks and the flick of a pen the entire post-Second World War social economic political and multilateral order is being ripped apart.

There is scope for a lot of chest-beating and reacting to unimaginable acts of violence to a modern social order. It is easy and understandable to be consumed by the breadth, scope and depth of the approach being taken by the Trump administration. It is also very easy to be consumed in discussing it, diagnosing it and being disgusted by it. This, however, will not assist how Europe and the wider world respond.

The question for Europe must be how it positions itself in the future. The European project born out of the embers of the Second World War is a project that one would believe is out of reach from Trump‘s desire to dismantle all that is not ‘Making America Great Again’. Evidently, he’s able to manipulate and take advantage of the differences within member states. But the leadership challenge and the Union’s challenge is to ensure that the founding principles of the EU are now brought to bear within the context of a new type of brutality to what has been a world order that generations and millions of people have created through acts of bravery, determination and temerity to establish the rights that we enjoy today.

The types of economic ties, social justice and political diplomacy that we enjoy has been the fruit of hard slog. The nature of trading relations up to this point, though turbulent in recent years and seized by autocratic desires, has been underscored by an overall sense of decency, diplomacy and the ability to speak to each other. It has also been defined by a shared understanding of how to safeguard respective economies and recognise the mutual character and interdependence of international law, trade and economics.

A key lesson from the 30s and 40s is that speaking up and not being a bystander are key to social progress. This is one of those moments in time in history where Europe needs to raise its voice and not be a bystander. The rise of authoritarianism is stronger than ever, fuelled by disinformation, polarisation and the erosion of truth itself. Just this week, Trump labelled Ukraine’s democratically elected President “a dictator,” a dangerous accusation untethered from reality but designed to serve a narrative. In a moment of stunning reversal, it is not the leader waging an expansionist war and murdering civilians who is branded as a threat, but the president fighting to defend his people. Trump’s rewriting of reality poses a threat not only to the unconditional support for Ukraine key to its victory, but also to the values-based democratic order itself.

Europe must act as a new global anchor for the values it believes in, setting out a strategy for itself and its partners, grounded in its principles and values; and demonstrate that this is possible, economically viable and sustainable.

The EU cannot afford to be a rabbit in front of headlights. It has known for long, at least in the past few years, that a Trump return would entail a very different kind of world and a very different relationship to it. Surely, it would’ve planned for all scenarios of the US elections, and one of those should’ve been prepared for the situation we are witnessing and how Europe would have to find a different kind of mindset, temerity and rigger to hold onto its foundation and ensure that the project continues with success. Part of this must include how it deals with enlargement, and most importantly, rallying those democracies around the world that share its values and its approach, and making them partners in a different kind of world order – one that places Europe at the heart of a different kind of point of global gravity.

The price of an inaction, or simply reaction, is too high given what is at stake and the power that the US holds globally. This is not just about political shifts; it is about the rise of an ideology that denies facts, distorts reality and weaponises fear to dismantle democratic structures. A new kind of autocracy is startling from one of the largest and most significant powers in the world.

This requires a pause for thought and the ability to recalibrate the international order and skew it to one that is able to safeguard and ensure that the gains made in the past 80 years are not lost as a result of the wind of an autocratic leader.

Europe must emerge as the voice of reason, thoughtfulness and kindness. It must articulate coherently and loudly the importance of the values and the social political economic order that has been established thus far and the importance of its continuity. To do so, it must rally those who agree as well as those who feel emasculated by the power of the US. It must reach out to multiple nations as a part of its foreign policy and diplomatic ties to craft a new multilateral vision based on age-old principles, values and approaches, adapted to the challenges of climate change, digitalisation and economics. Above all, it must have the confidence that it can operate in the absence of the US.

Invoking god, certainty and the will of the American people is the new coda. And everything is fair game. Rules, the fabric of government and governance, institutions, multilateralism, international development and relationships, foreign policy, multiculturalism, diplomacy, trade, security and defence, climate change and democracy are all up for grabs and more!

In an era where facts are malleable, and objective truth is discarded, identity, gender and ethnicity are weaponised. Even a tragic mid-air collision is blamed on diversity policy. But that’s the point – everything that happens has a playbook that reinforces the key tenets of the political discourse, regardless of how outlandish it may seem.

Will the usual happen? Will political leaders simply wait and watch or acquiesce with their own version of this dystopian vision?

In all this quagmire lies an opportunity for Europe. The thing he can’t touch with a presidential order is the EU; of course he can play the divide-and-rule game to dismantle it, but despite that, the EU can fight a good fight: look eastwards and south, for governments that still share the EU’s values, that have the potential, resources and capabilities to shape an alternative to the US narrative.

The dollar, security, technology and economic hardware, can still be stood up to. Asia, Africa and Latin America have the wherewithal to come together with Europe and force a different doctrine and global order. Together with the EU, they can fashion a new order on health, trade and diplomacy!

There’s a ‘me’, ‘I’ and ‘us against them’ narrative playing out.

Gandhi, King, Mandela, Rosa Parks, the suffragettes and every individual who has fought and given their lives for social justice and progress must be turning in their graves.

Poor Ursula! Her first term was left fielded with a global pandemic, a war in Europe’s neighbourhood and an energy crisis; now it’s responding to a man made tearing up of the global rule book on an industrial scale! Everything prepared last year in terms of the EU’s policy book needs to be overhauled.

One would hope that those who advised on the said policy book would have thought through various risk scenarios, including a Trump return. But they would be forgiven a tad given the scale, boldness and speed of the presidential orders. They would be forgiven in thinking, ‘he wouldn’t do that’. But alas, he has.

It’s ‘a something for everyone one’ smorgasbord of policies – those who feel gender politics have gone too far; that the immigrants are too many and undeserving; that charity starts at home; that foreign and economic actions should serve Americans first; that action on climate change is hurting American interests; and that equality of opportunity is not working, is too costly and creating security risks and so on. This spectrum brings in many constituencies that are not always aligned but they all find a ‘home’! Therein lies the appeal and the potential to wreak havoc.

Imagine the vision and picture of a nation-state that has been constructed by Trump at this stage of the 21st century given all our social progress on so many levels.

Europe has a choice to make.

Everything is to play for. The opportunity for Europe is to establish itself as a balancer, market maker and value setter reinforcing the need for a Renewed Social Contract.

President Trump is shaking the tree of convention and conventionality, seeing what gives and drops.

In all this, it’s easy to forget that human nature at heart is kind, giving and connected. People are people everywhere. Maligning those who have voted for the US administration is foolhardy and would be focusing on the symptoms rather than the cause. The left and centre of politics needs to think hard. Their complacency, reactive modality, approaching everything through a rearview mirror and received wisdom, taking for granted gains made and most importantly, the inability to craft an alternative vision, or ideology fit for our times are part of the problem.

As in COVID times and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ‘world system’ has been caught off guard.

The time is now to reflect and to act decisively to vouchsafe what we hold dearly but then plan, be proactive and identify the assets at play across the world that are well-meaning and prefer an alternative to what is on offer from across the Atlantic. That’s Europe’s choice and challenge.

Remember the one about Haitians eating domestic pets? When questioned about how Trump knows this to be true? “I’ve seen people on television…the people on television say ‘my dog was taken and used for food’.”

The flat earth believers are back. Be aware!

*first published in friends of europe