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The saga of the Future Combat Air System between France and Germany shows that both of these middle powers still have a lot to learn in this regard. Germany continues to be torn between wanting to preserve whatever crumbs of its defense relationship with the United States are left, and a still-theoretical understanding that it must use its economic might to supercharge European defense. France, meanwhile, is wary that Berlin’s increasing assertiveness in strategic and defense matters is happening at Paris’s expense.

Macron Makes France a Great Middle Power

France has stopped clinging to notions of being a great power and is embracing the middle power moment. But Emmanuel Macron has his work cut out if he is to secure his country’s global standing before his term in office ends.

Europe’s banks are happy with risk-averse customers. Their own healthy profits come from re-investing low-interest deposits into more profitable activities. Being risk-averse themselves, they starve small and medium-sized companies of loans, and this year have begun squeezing credit even tighter. The EU Commission is trying to encourage a shift into investment of the €10tn in cash held by the big retail banks, but it’s an uphill struggle.

The EU’s zig-zag road towards stronger financial markets

Giles Merritt delves into the confusing welter of efforts to streamline Europe’s national financial players into a more dynamic single capital market

In 2027, two Austrian states – Tyrol and Upper Austria – will hold their next elections and votes there are typically influenced by national political trends. If public sentiment toward the government doesn’t improve significantly by then, the ruling parties could face serious internal turmoil.

Vienna calling: Austria far right gathers strength after near miss

To thwart the FPÖ’s steady rise, the Austrian government tries to play the long game

AI disruption is unlikely to manifest as sudden mass redundancy. It is more likely to take the form of incremental task substitution and workflow automation that progressively reduce the scope of existing roles. Jobs would be hollowed out before being eliminated, creating prolonged insecurity rather than immediate unemployment.

How Europe Can Survive the AI Labor Transition

Integrating AI into the workplace will increase job insecurity, fundamentally reshaping labor markets. To anticipate and manage this transition, the EU must build public trust, provide training infrastructures, and establish social protections.

Are the hundreds of billions for defense being spent wisely, in for 95 percent traditional weapons?  At the Munich Security Conference Moritz Schularick, director of the specialised research Kiel Institute, said that  over 800 billion euros in additional investment in the next years are ‘no guarantee that Europe will become more secure!’. He advocated for greater attention to innovation.

After a painful NATO exercise: are all those billions for defense being spent wisely?

NATO reported on its website about a large-scale exercise organised by a multinational battlegroup in Estonia. The soldiers had to train in temperatures of 20 degrees below zero. The military alliance is investing significant resources in defending its eastern flank.

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After 7 October, Albanese said that while Hamas ruled Gaza with “an iron fist”, it had also built schools and hospitals and provided the territory’s de facto administration – infrastructure Israel later destroyed. “When you think of Hamas,” she added, “you should not necessarily think of cut-throats, people armed to the teeth, or fighters.”

Europe

The Albanese around the UN’s neck

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Everyone remembers the pupil at the back of the classroom, needling classmates – then flashing a wide-eyed “Who, me?” when the teacher turned around.

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For Europe, the lesson is pointed. Eight European leaders in New Delhi this week is more than optics. It is recognition that India’s AI ecosystem — its engineering depth, its digital public infrastructure, its billion-plus user base, its IndiaAI Mission — is significantly more than a supporting character in the global AI story.

Business

The Week That Changed Everything: EU–India After the FTA, the AI Summit and the End of Strategic Ambiguity

Wednesday, February 18, 2026

What New Delhi’s February Moment Means for Europe — and Why Central and Eastern Europe Must Now Step Forward

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The European Commission should appoint a senior Syria coordinator, tasked with aligning fragmented responses across EU development funds, diplomatic services, and the European Investment Bank. A dedicated Syria reconstruction working group with mandatory member state participation would prevent contradictory policies that undermine credibility.

Analyses

Can EU Still Matter in Syria?

Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Europe’s interests in Syria extend beyond migration management, yet the EU trails behind other players in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. To boost its influence in Damascus, the union must upgrade its commitment to ensuring regional stability.

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RECOMMENDED

The United States remains essential to both Europe and India, both economically and strategically. Under Trump, however, the risk of volatility may become a permanent feature of the relationship. The EU–India FTA, on the other hand, provides a steady basis for two markets that increasingly value predictability as a competitive advantage.

World

The New Trade Triangle: EU–India–US

Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Trump cut US tariffs on India just weeks after Brussels signed its FTA, but the EU still offers the only long-term, rules-based framework New Delhi seeks.

The auditors found that the EU’s high-level specifications for member states’ anti-fraud systems, as set out in the RRF Regulation, were not sufficiently detailed.

Europe

EU auditors highlight "fraud" in COVID fund

Thursday, February 12, 2026

The EU’s €650 billion COVID recovery fund, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), continues to show multiple weaknesses in fraud detection, reporting and correction, according to a new report by the European Court of Auditors (ECA).

Likeminded, capable, and willing member states can move forward on supercharging the EU’s economic firepower by deepening the single market, completing the capital markets union and banking union, and consolidating industry. The formation of specialized subgroups within the whole should no longer be seen as a negative to avoid, but rather as a necessary flexibility without which the European project cannot survive.

Analyses

To Survive, the EU Must Split

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Leaning into a multispeed Europe that includes the UK is the way Europeans don’t get relegated to suffering what they must, while the mighty United States and China do what they want.

Emmanuel Macron warned that "today Europe faces a massive challenge, in a world of disorder"

Europe

Macron urges EU to start acting like world power

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Europe to assert itself on the world stage, saying it is time to start acting like a "power".

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It’s clear, meanwhile, that the idea of a hugely powerful BRICS bloc is a non-starter. Russia’s inclusion is only part of the problem; above all, there’s the challenge of finding common economic interests between Brazil, India, China and South Africa. The only real binding agent is shared political opposition to US or EU initiatives.

Analyses

The EU must take the lead in a ’new world order’ of trade blocs

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Giles Merritt looks at the EU’s leadership opportunities in a world to be transformed by massive demographic convulsions.

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The Munich Security Conference organisers have published a report ahead of the event in which Tobias Bunde, the director of research & policy, says there has now been a fundamental break with US post-WW2 strategy.

World

Trump’s world order hangs over Europe on eve of key defence conference

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

It is one year since US Vice-President JD Vance delivered a bombshell speech at the Munich Security Conference, castigating Europe for its policies on migration and free speech, and claiming the greatest threat the continent faces comes from within.

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USA@250 is not, formally, a grand strategy. It is a commemorative platform. Yet its timing matters. The United States enters its 250th year while the global system is being reshaped by industrial policy, technological rivalry, demographic divergence, and security fragmentation. Domestically, the anniversary is an attempt to rebuild civic confidence and institutional legitimacy. Externally, it unfolds in direct comparison with long-horizon projects elsewhere, most notably China’s 2049 goal of national rejuvenation.

Business

USA@250 and the Rising World’s Agendas and Visions: EU lessons

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

In 2026, the United States will mark a symbolic milestone: 250 years since 1776. The official “America250” framework presents the semiquincentennial as a civic moment, a pause for reflection, renewal, and national storytelling. For Europeans, it may appear as an inward-looking exercise, heavy on symbolism and light on strategy.

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Various US presidents, including Theodore Roosevelt, deliberately demonstrated their strength toward Japan. John F. Kennedy’s naval blockade during the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s, which famously brought the world to the brink of nuclear war while pushing Moscow to negotiate. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan used aircraft carriers in the Gulf of Sidra to bomb Libya, but not a formal declaration of war.

Europe

Trump’s ‘Armada’ to Iran and the Return of Gunboat Diplomacy

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

US naval buildup in the Persian Gulf is putting pressure on the Ayatollahs, but it also raises the risk of military escalation, regional conflict, and dangerous miscalculation.

more on Europe

The CRM Act sets only non-binding targets by 2030, and these apply only to a small number of raw materials, regarded as ‘strategic’ due to their high economic importance and supply risks. It is also unclear how the levels to be reached by 2030 were determined.

Europe

EU "trapped in a vicious circle" on raw materials

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

The EU is having difficulties securing the supply of the raw materials it needs to meet its energy and climate goals. This is the conclusion of a new report by the European Court of Auditors (ECA).

more on Europe

EU Actually

After a painful NATO exercise: are all those billions for defense being spent wisely?

N. Peter KramerBy: N. Peter Kramer

NATO reported on its website about a large-scale exercise organised by a multinational battlegroup in Estonia. The soldiers had to train in temperatures of 20 degrees below zero. The military alliance is investing significant resources in defending its eastern flank.

Europe

Macron Makes France a Great Middle Power

Macron Makes France a Great Middle Power

France has stopped clinging to notions of being a great power and is embracing the middle power moment. But Emmanuel Macron has his work cut out if he is to secure his country’s global standing before his term in office ends.

Business

The EU’s zig-zag road towards stronger financial markets

The EU’s zig-zag road towards stronger financial markets

Giles Merritt delves into the confusing welter of efforts to streamline Europe’s national financial players into a more dynamic single capital market

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