by Nick Alipour
For a glimpse of Europe’s future, look no further than the retreat of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) in Berlin today.
Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next chancellor, has assembled Europe’s conservative party family to marshal his troops for the upcoming battle. Nine national leaders, the European Commission president, and the head of the European Parliament’s most powerful group – the EPP – have heeded the call.
The stakes are high: If Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) win the German election in February, his office success will depend on his ability to bend the EU to his will.
Luckily, he has two compatriots and fellow party members by his side to control the EU’s trifecta of Commission, Parliament, and European Council in Brussels
In the CDU’s ideal scenario, Merz will call the shots as primus inter pares among leaders in the Council; Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) will bring what the party considers to be the Berlaymont’s regulation fanatics into line; and Manfred Weber (CSU), the EPP’s parliamentary leader, will fix the majorities.
But there is a lot that could go wrong.
Merz is driven by fear that the far right could rise to power in Germany and Europe if the Christian Democratic trio fails to beef up the EU’s competitiveness and security by the end of its term in 2029.
Unfortunately for Merz, progress will likely be slow and cooperation tedious, as conversations with 10 people familiar with the matter suggest.
"Merz, Weber, and von der Leyen are experienced enough to overcome differences in their personalities for the cause,” one source said.
“But they also represent the interests of three different institutions.”
Just the three of us
On one thing, everyone agrees: Merz, who started his political career as an MEP in the 1980s, is obsessively focused on the EU and coordination with allies such as France and Poland.
“We need someone like that as chancellor again,” one source said in a dig at Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s passive European performance.
Gushy folk tales about Merz’s affection for Europe circulate within the CDU, especially about his Brussels trip in October. He is praised for navigating the European quarter without Google Maps, mastering the alphabet soup of EU abbreviations, and for diligent note-taking when interacting with EPP lawmakers.
He has reason to care. Brussels is key to implementing much of his competitiveness and security agenda. This includes slashing the red tape paralysing German businesses, 60% of which is connected to the EU, and reducing migration. Merz wants to change EU asylum law and cooperate with first-line countries.
While some in the business-friendly CDU see von der Leyen’s first-term Green Deal as the root of all regulatory evil, the Commission president, Merz, and Weber now, surprisingly, pull in the same direction on policy.
The ’perma-smiling’ president and the grimacing CDU chief “first had to find a way of working together,” said one source. “Unlike Angela Merkel and von der Leyen, who understood each other blindly as long-time companions,” they added.
However, do not expect Merz and von der Leyen’s relationship to be as warm, as the source said it is difficult to replicate.
But the three-way relationship, that includes Weber is now “very trusting", a source familiar with Weber’s thinking said.
Accordingly, policy coordination frequently occurs at all levels between Berlin and Brussels. In Berlin, EPP leaders are supposed to sign off on the results with a joint paper that underlines their commitment to dismantling EU regulation.
A Bermuda triangle?
As is common in Brussels, Merz’s wishlist will likely get bogged down in the Bermuda triangle between the three major EU institutions, where legislation tends to lose its original shape.
A source told Euractiv that the CDU/CSU’s ambitious European policies will not be easy to implement in Brussels, especially when it comes to cutting red tape and and putting pressure on the Commission.
There are concerns in Berlin that not all of the Commission’s 32,000 employees have received the memo on competitiveness and deregulation, particularly within the regulatory-friendly DG Climate Action. Von der Leyen’s flagship omnibus legislation, due to slash businesses’ reporting obligations, is seen as insufficient.
Von der Leyen must also accommodate the social democratic Commissioners, who are less keen on tougher migration policies and reversing green regulations.
Other party families also complicate Weber’s mission to engineer parliamentary majorities, wielding influence through non-cooperation and powerful rapporteur positions.
"There is zero willingness from the Socialists and the Greens to reduce the [bureaucratic] burden,” one source said.
Weber has thus turned to his right to build majorities in cooperation with “pro-Ukraine, pro-rule-of-law, and pro-European" forces – and tacitly tolerated that those even further right vote alongside the EPP.
That is not to everyone’s liking, as Merz has become one of the most evangelical disciples of the cordon sanitaire.
“The CDU/CSU wants to make policy in the political centre,” one source said tersely.
Clash a trois
In the face of legislative limitations, some worry that Merz will take out the crowbar at first and address Brussels top-down.
“I would understand if the CDU were impatient and came to Brussels with the self-confidence that the EPP will follow its position,” one source said.
Recent history offers a preview.
Last year, after confirming his run for chancellor, Merz announced emphatically that he would travel to Brussels to “meet the Commission president and propose several topics that we believe are important."
His priority? Das Auto. An EU plan to effectively ban the sale of new cars powered by combustion engines was “wrong," he said.
Somewhat tellingly, von der Leyen was not waiting to hear Merz’s grand plans, travelling instead to the US and Switzerland.
Merz is also prepared to draw on the EPP majority of 11 national leaders in the European Council to increase the pressure on other institutions, people familiar with his thinking say. In Berlin, he will be looking to close the ranks behind him.
“Merz, von der Leyen, and Weber agree 99.9% of the time,” one source said. With the far right snapping at their heels, that remaining 0.1% could make all the difference for Europe’s future.
*first published in: Euractiv.com
By: N. Peter Kramer
