by Georgi Gotev
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has raised the alarm that the US will impose Russia-related sanctions on the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), though analysts say Vucic’s real aim is to take control of NIS.
On 13 December, Vucic announced that he had information indicating that the US would impose "full sanctions" on NIS, which could threaten the supply of oil derivatives. He said this was bad news because no one would risk dealing with a company under US sanctions, he said at the time.
NIS is one of Serbia’s most profitable companies, one of its largest exporters and a pillar of the country’s energy system. Its revenues increased to €3.3 billion last year, equivalent to 4.5% of Serbia’s GDP.
Since 2008, Russian state-owned Gazprom Neft and its parent company Gazprom have held a majority stake of 56.15% in NIS, Serbia owns 29.87%ucic painted an apocalyptic scenario, saying that after the US sanctions against the NIS, the Croatian Adriatic oil pipeline (JANAF) would immediately stop delivering oil to Serbia. At present, this pipeline supplies landlocked Serbia with 80% of its oil needs.
He also announced that he would discuss the issue with the Russians and Americans and ordered members of the Serbian cabinet to form a negotiating team. According to Vucic, the sanctions are expected to be unveiled by 15 January.
Serbia had the money to buy NIS, Vucic said, adding that the US administration’s concern was that it did not want Russia to fill its coffers with the money it would receive from the sale of NIS - alarming statements that found no confirmation from the US side.
Some opposition figures and critics in Serbia have expressed doubts, accusing the Serbian strongman of using the prospect of sanctions to distract from domestic issues.
The US ambassador to Serbia, Christopher Hill, made it clear this week that Washington would not do anything to damage Serbia’s economy. As quoted by BETA, Hill also said that cooperation with Russian companies, especially in the energy sector, "has long been a known risk".
The Pavlovic Today, a US-based independent news media outlet covering Serbia, was sceptical about Vucic’s alarmist prediction. The media quoted sources within the incoming Trump administration who said it was unlikely that Biden would impose sanctions on the Serbian oil company so close to his departure from the White House.
Former Bulgarian ambassador to Moscow Ilian Vassilev, who is the publisher of Alternativata, a media that specialises in energy and geopolitics, told Euractiv that Vucic had signalled to the Americans that he was ready to allow an American investor into the NIS.
He explained that he had received this information from a source with insight into the Serbian side of the deal.
According to Vassilev, Vucic is aware that the Kremlin can no longer extract the same economic benefits from oil, so he is returning his coat.
“The fact is that Vucic will force the Russians to sell, and he will make the most of the deal”, the former diplomat said.
*first published in: Euractiv.com
By: N. Peter Kramer
