by Ryan O’Connell*
Will Kamala Harris win this election and become the U.S.’s first female President? The honest answer is that no one can predict the outcome. Despite all her momentum, it is still a toss-up.
A fighting chance
Democrats now have a fighting chance, but they should beware the dangers of overconfidence. This will likely be a very tight race. Harris and Trump are essentially tied in the seven battleground states.
In most cases, the poll results are within the margin of error. In other words, the vote in a particular state could go either way.
The 2 i’s – inflation and immigration
Many U.S. voters are angry about inflation and worried about immigration, and they blame the Biden administration, fairly or unfairly, for exacerbating both situations.
A historic candidacy that cuts two ways
Harris’ historic candidacy as a mixed-race woman cuts two ways, inspiring some voters and alienating others.
For many young Americans, and people of color, Harris’ candidacy is inspiring. But in some respects, the Democrats are rolling the dice by asking voters to choose a black woman, and a liberal Californian to boot, as their next leader.
It is a fair guess that Harris will not appeal to large swaths of white, blue-collar men, many of whom have already drifted away from the Democratic Party.
And how will Harris perform with other important voter segments, such as black men, Latino men and Latino women?
Biden had lost ground with some black men, although most remained in his camp. Meanwhile, his support among Hispanics had eroded considerably, because of inflation and immigration.
Challenges with black men…
Harris has not been popular with some black men, because she was a tough prosecutor who sent many African Americans to jail and because she is married to a white man.
However, Donald Trump may have helped Harris win more support from black men, with his racist comments questioning whether she was black and calling her “dumb.”
Trump’s race-tainted attacks may backfire. It is one thing for a black man to harbor doubts about Harris. It is another for a white guy to denigrate a sister.
… and Latinos
Latinos are the largest minority group in the United States, representing almost 20% of potential voters. They are crucial constituencies in battleground states such as Arizona and Nevada.
Latinos will undoubtedly look for concrete proposals from Harris on how the government would control the border and ease the impact of inflation on them.
Many Hispanics are blue-collar and lower-income workers, and they have felt the impact of higher prices acutely. And like most Americans, they favor a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States, but they also want the border to be secure.
Playing offense on immigration
Harris has adopted a good strategy on the immigration issue. This is critical, because it is a top issue for voters and Republicans are attacking her — unfairly — as the “border czar” and blaming her for the problems on the border.
In fact, Harris was assigned a limited, carefully defined role on immigration issues: How to craft long-term solutions for reducing immigration from Central America.
On the campaign trail, Harris has vowed to tighten security at the border by hiring more patrol officers (not by building a wall, which would be a waste of money).
Harris has also emphasized that President Biden and Democrats in Congress supported a tough bill on border security that had bipartisan support and was going to be passed… until Trump torpedoed it in the Senate, so that he could use immigration as an election issue.
Telling the truth about immigrants
Harris and Walz should hammer home these two themes during their campaign. They should also point out that immigrants do not cause large amounts of crime.
In fact, immigrants have lower rates of crime than native-born Americans do. The reason is self-evident: The last thing an immigrant wants is problems with the police, which could lead to deportation.
A thorny issue: Inflation
One of Donald Trump’s greatest con jobs has been convincing voters that, in his time as U.S. President, he did an outstanding job on managing the U.S. economy and that Biden’s spending programs were the main cause for inflation.
Both claims are false. Even so, voters give Democrats low marks on these two issues. Harris must therefore address their concerns. Harris should also adopt centrist positions, rather than cater to progressives, on these issues.
Harris recently unveiled several proposals on the economy that addressed the high cost of living. On the positive side, Harris showed that she was sensitive to voters’ concerns.
Some compelling ideas, others less so
Some of her ideas are compelling, such as Harris suggesting a $6,000 payment for families having their first child. The price tag for this initiative could be high, but this is a very sound policy.
However, certain suggestions are dubious on the merits. Harris attacked grocery chains for price gouging, and she proposed setting price caps on food items. The reality is that the grocery industry is a high-volume, low-margin business.
Does Harris intend to cap the grocery chains’ prices…or go after the food producers? It’s not clear. Either way, proposals like this will provide ammunition for the Republican attack machine.
With his usual blend of subtlety and accuracy (irony off), Trump promptly called Harris’ economic proposals “communist.” That is an absurd claim, of course, but Harris should drop some of her ideas, not least because they are either hard, if not impossible, to either administer or legislate.
Her best asset?
One is increasingly tempted to believe that one of the strongest assets which Kamala Harris has working in her favor is the self-destructive tendencies regularly exhibited by Donald Trump.
Trump is all doom and gloom, conjuring up a dystopian picture of an America plagued by soaring crime, violent immigrants and a failing economy…which exists only in his head.
A final bit of good news for the Democrats: Trump is spending more time on the golf course than on the campaign trail.
*Wall Street lawyer, banker and for 25 years a bond analyst for firms including Moody’s, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg
**first published in: Theglobalist.com
By: N. Peter Kramer
