by Radu Magdin*
In December 2022, at a time when the European Union was recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, there was hope that the divisions between Eastern and Western Europe would fade, leading to greater solidarity. Russia’s war against Ukraine was also a unifying factor. However, times have changed. Just as some of the animosity in Southern Europe towards the North was, during the eurozone crisis, not so much about substantive economic arguments but rather about the style and power play of partners, we find ourselves today at a critical moment in the relationship between Western and Eastern Europe. Today, we have two Western countries at the forefront of European hypocrisy and blunt power politics. These countries are Austria and the Netherlands and the case at point is Romania’s and Bulgaria’s entry into the Schengen area.
It is absolutely ironic that two countries which, according to international press reports, have their own massive problems—one struggling to control international drug trafficking at its borders (affecting the Schengen area), and the other rightly accused of serving as a bridgehead for Russia in Europe—would engage in such a hypocritical game. These two “frugal” countries, which insist on the virtue of European rules regarding deficits, debt, and common loans, are in complete opposition to what they preach on other occasions in Europe. The situation is all the more perplexing considering that both Austria and the Netherlands are among the top 5-10 investors in Romania and Bulgaria. It is a statecraft irony that the actions of their two governments undermines the credibility and maneuvering space of honest Austrian and Dutch companies operating in Romania and Bulgaria.
On the Schengen issue, since both the European Commission and Parliament have clearly stated that the two states meet the accession conditions, it should come as no surprise that Dutch and Austrian behavior is seen not only as hypocritical but also as abusive. This behavior will have consequences not only for the bilateral relationships but also for European cooperation and the overall club atmosphere. Many countries are closely watching how the Schengen dossier for Romania and Bulgaria will be finalized because it affects the credibility of the enlargement process to Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans and the strength of support for Kyiv against the Russian aggression.
Political and economic elites in Brussels, as well as in other European capitals, including common sensical elites in the Hague and Vienna, need to engage in strategic rethinking and mobilize to combat a situation of continued injustice. We can no longer count on the good willingness of formal leadership in Vienna and the Hague. Today’s situation, especially after Bucharest and Sofia successfully closed the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism, affects the European Union as a whole and could produce unpleasant surprises. Just as the European Union was shocked that the Global South did not share its view on Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, some Eastern European countries, if not all, may not sympathize and solidarize with Western Europe in the future precisely because of elements of hypocrisy such as the Schengen ones.
Paris and Berlin are constructive and the Nordics understood as well the usefulness of the Easterners, while dealing with Turkey on the NATO accession issue. Today, on the Schengen issue, we practically have a united front of countries from the East, North, and South against two Western countries which hypocritically say "no" to Romania and Bulgaria, and implicitly to the advancement of the European project. Setbacks on important issues for the Eastern capitals are setbacks for the entire club and put major pressure on mainstream leaders in these capitals to become tougher toward other capitals and eventually stall or block Brussels decisions. Ultimately, leaders may, under public pressure or rise of extremist parties, adopt a Hungarian-style game in the future, which may not be pleasing to The Hague or Vienna, and makes no favour to the EU. Arguments like the one of a Austrian minister that the Schengen vote is not against Romania but against system, insult our intelligence: if the system is broken, why did Vienna vote for the expansion of the Schengen area in December 2022 to Croatia?
If the fact that Romania and Bulgaria are pro-European and constructive starts to be seen as a sign of weakness in various capitals, we have a big European problem. These two states have a legitimate claim - and national need - to enter the Schengen area, and if they do not do so before the European elections, the pressure on their political leaders to act without gloves to achieve a fair result will increase significantly. It is sad that the EU has to function this way in terms of power rules and games, but next time Hungary tries to block Austria and the Netherlands on various issues on which the latter may be right, there will be at least some silent satisfaction from Romania and Bulgaria. A former leader of the Austrian intelligence services mentioned recently the possibility of an extremist, pro-Russia party winning parliamentary elections in Austria. But if Chancellor Nehammer takes profoundly anti-European actions, effectively behaving in this dossier as an agent of Russia, why should we fear an extremist party when the political mainstream acts just as toxic as the extremists?
It is time for a wake-up call before the European elections: let’s all look in the mirror carefully and do what is necessary for Europe to progress. From this perspective, one can always count on two pro-European countries, Romania and Bulgaria, which nonetheless should not be abused. Or 2024 may backfire on the European project.
*a power strategist passionate for Leadership, Communications, Competition & Risk, a member of Forbes Business Councils, author of the forthcoming book "Global Europe & Global Romania: a Competition and Communications Playbook"
By: N. Peter Kramer
