by Aneta Zachova, Barbara Zmuskova, Charles Szumski and Theo Bourgery-Gonse
The victory of pro-Putin Robert Fico in Slovakia’s elections pleased Budapest, which saw an ally coming to power but caused concern among pro-EU forces. Although the formation of a government is still to be seen, calls for Europe to “wake up” are increasing amid mounting fears over AI misinformation campaigns.
Fico’s SMER-SSD party won with 23.37% of the vote, followed by the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) with 18%, and the HLAS (Voice) party, which could become the kingmaker for forming the next government, third with 14.7%.
Smer’s decisive victory gave Fico a path to government with Hlas led by former prime minister Peter Pellegrini, who could also be persuaded to seek a pro-Western coalition with runner-up progressives as it may include an offer of the prime minister’s seat.
Throughout the legislative campaign, Fico, known for his pro-Putin stance, said military support to Ukraine “only prolonged the conflict” and vowed to fight against “sanctions that hurt the EU more than they hurt Russia”.
Should he manage to secure a functioning coalition, he made clear he would stay short of sending more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
Following the results, Slovak President Zuzana Caputova said she would respect political tradition and give the winner, Fico’s pro-Russian Smer party, a shot at forming a government. A coalition with Slovak National Party (SNS) and Smer defectors Hlas could give Fico a comfortable majority.
Fico said his priorities after entering government would be putting up controls on the border with Hungary and firing the Special Prosecutor and Police Chief, who spent the last few years investigating political corruption from the Smer era.
“Guess who’s back! Congratulations to Robert Fico on his undisputable victory in the Slovak parliamentary elections. Always good to work together with a patriot,” commented Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, fuelling speculations that Fico and Orban would become allies in defying other member states in questions of support for Ukraine and the rule of law.
But former premier Peter Pellegrini, leader of Hlas, could also form a coalition with Progressive Slovakia, Christian Democrats from KDH, and the libertarian SaS. According to Dennik N, Hlas might be persuaded by an offer of the prime minister’s seat.
However, Pellegrini’s comments suggest he prefers a coalition with Fico. During a TV debate, he said Smer is a closer ideological match, but he criticised SNS, whose ten MPs will include only one party member.
Smer’s path to government was made easier by gains made by both him and Pellegrini and the fact that cooperation with SNS would give him enough seats to form a government. Pre-election polls suggested he would have to cooperate with the far-right Republika party.
While embraced by Fico, cooperation with Republika was a red line for Pellegrini. In a surprising twist, the far-right party narrowly missed the five-percent quorum.
However, multiple far-right politicians will also make the parliament on SNS’s ballot, including a few who started their careers with LSNS, a party whose leader was convicted for spreading Nazi symbolism. Smer’s membership in the Party of European Socialists was suspended in 2006 for entering government with SNS.
French MEP: EU must ‘wake up’
Meanwhile, French Renew MEP Nathalie Loiseau said on TV that Europe must wake up after Slovakia’s parliamentary elections.
“There is a risk for this country, there is a risk for other countries too” to fall into pro-Russian narratives, Loiseau, the 2019 campaign chief for the French pro-Macron Renaissance delegation, told Franceinfo on Sunday.
“Those who say racist, populist [and] pro-Russian parties can’t get into higher office would be better off looking to Bratislava,” she added.
Macron’s office, which Euractiv reached out to on Sunday, refused to comment. When this article was written, neither the Foreign Affairs nor EU ministers had commented on the results.
French MEP Valerie Hayer, and Renaissance delegation co-chief at the European Parliament, spoke of a “dark day for Ukraine and Western unity” – as Fico claimed Slovakia had “more pressing problems” than the Ukraine war.
Fico’s win is “preoccupying,” while “a reflection over the future of Europe and democracy is needed,” Pierre Moscovici, a former EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, posted on X.
Jourova concerned over disinformation
On Sunday, EU Commission Vice-President Vera Jourova said that the EU Commission respects the results of the Slovak parliamentary elections, but they were accompanied by disinformation.
For example, a fake video produced by artificial intelligence circulated in Slovakia before the elections, with Progressive Slovakia (Renew) leader Michal Simecka “announcing” a rise in beer prices. Jourova warned that the misuse of technology could threaten European democracy.
“It was Progressive Slovakia that faced an unprecedented disinformation boost. This is based on all the surveys available to me and from the platforms that gave me a report on the state of the disinformation campaigns last week. We have seen both a high level of flooding of the Slovak information space from the far right, but also from pro-Kremlin sources,” Jourova said on Czech Television on Sunday.
A similar view is shared by Katarina Klingova, a senior research fellow at GLOBSEC, a think tank, who said Slovakia’s legislative campaign has been marked by high levels of online disinformation and pro-Russian narratives.
“It is the domestic political actors who are the main perpetrators and the main spreaders of disinformation [in Slovakia],” Klingova said.
Jourova did not want to speculate on how much this might have influenced the results.
“We respect the choice of Slovak citizens. They had the opportunity to decide autonomously, but under a high degree of manipulation,” the Czech Commissioner said.
Jourova believes the new Digital Services Act, which came into force at the end of August, could already impact next year’s European elections.
Under the regulation, online platforms should ensure greater privacy protection for users and act against illegal content. They should not, for example, contain calls for violence and killing, alarmist messages or endorsement of aggression.
EU socialists feeling uncomfortable
In Brussels, Smer is affiliated with the EU socialists (PES), who now have every reason to feel headaches again.
The EU socialists had always been critical of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) for having Orban’s Fidesz party in its ranks.
Although Fidesz was ultimately kicked out of the EPP, the EU socialists never took adequate measures to face their own problematic “child” Smer.
Fico has a sulphurous image in the ranks of European socialists because of his pro-Russian and anti-vaccine stances and his harsh words against journalists.
In 2022, as he was in the opposition, Fico repeatedly declared that journalists were “an organised criminal group with the aim of breaking Slovak statehood” and called on the Slovak police to investigate them.
His clashes with journalists are nothing new, and Fico was even forced to resign from his second term as prime minister following the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee. Kuciak was investigating corruption in Fico’s government and circle at the time of his murder.
Fico’s Smer party was the first to be suspended from the Party of European Socialists (PES) for ten months in 2006 in response to its coalition government with the far-right Slovak National Party. Smer was also threatened with suspension in 2015 over its leader’s anti-migrant rhetoric.
Since then, the PES has given Smer half-hearted support, given its socialist roots and the need for the four MEPs that the party brings to the European Socialist and Democrat (S&D) Group in the European Parliament.
The PES also faced repeated calls to take action against Fico’s party and, in an open letter, Slovak Renew and EPP MEPs wrote Fico is “helping to spread Kremlin propaganda”.
Ahead of the elections, the PES Presidency disclosed in a statement that it discussed with Smer-SD its concerns about Fico’s reported positions and emphasised the importance of upholding social democratic values, including democracy, respect for international law, opposition to aggression and support for progressive values among all PES member parties.
Contacted by Euractiv, an S&D spokesperson confirmed that the group “fully agrees” with the PES presidency’s statement and shares concerns about the reported positions of Smer-SD leader Robert Fico.
*first publihsed in: Euractiv.com
By: N. Peter Kramer
