Better yet, they could also have a positive impact on developments in the next decade, says the IMD's Jean-Pierre Lehmann. There is no denying it. The terribly messy invasion of Iraq, the quagmire in Afghanistan, the Israeli wars waged on Lebanon and then Gaza — they have all contributed to the tumultuousness of this decade just passed.
In addition, the Great Global Financial Crisis of 2008 shattered the assumptions and aspirations fed by the decade’s ambience of “irrational exuberance.” The paralysis of the WTO Doha Round, the lack of any progress on the climate change agenda, culminating in the washout Copenhagen Accord, and the pretty certain failure — short of a miracle — of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Indeed, the reversal of some of these goals — contributing to an increase in the number of malnourished from 200 million to one billion — is deplorable. So is sky-rocketing unemployment everywhere, thereby contributing to greater poverty and social unrest. They, too, all testify to the prevailing gloom. Nevertheless, five achievements of the past decade stand out. They could also have a positive impact on developments in the next decade.
1. The G20
Most of the first decade was characterized by the unilateralism of the United States under the Bush Administration, supported by the obsequious toadying of the United Kingdom under Tony Blair, while the G7 dominated whatever there was of global economic governance. In the meantime, the global economy was undergoing change at a tremendous speed, much of it very positive. The decade witnessed the emergence of multiple new dynamic actors actively contributing to, and benefiting from, the global market economy. Think of a country like Vietnam, which for much of the previous century experienced terrible hardships on all fronts. Today, it has not only seen the world’s fastest rate of poverty reduction, it has also been transformed into a highly entrepreneurial society. The erstwhile "boat people" dispersed around the world are returning to invest and transfer skills, all contributing significantly to improve the well-being of the Vietnamese people.
The establishment of the G20 as the de facto locus of global economic governance is a recognition of this changing world. While far from perfect and still too early to proclaim its efficacy, it is a not-insignificant step in the right direction. The pity, of course, is that a global economic crisis was required for it to materialize.
2. Brazil’s Breakout
For all the excitement about the emerging economies, the top prize for the first decade of the 21st century would incontestably go to Brazil. Throughout its 500-year history, celebrated in 2000, the potential of Brazil was never at issue. The remarkable thing seemed to be how, brief interludes notwithstanding, successive political regimes squandered all that potential with maddening regularity. Throughout much of the 20th century, the image of Brazil — samba and carnival notwithstanding — was that of a socially unjust, politically mismanaged, economically chaotic, crime-ridden society. That image reflected reality. Since the installation of the Real Plan in 1994, however, Brazil has begun to mature. Under two successive two-term administrations, that of Cardoso (1995-2003) and now Lula's, the political mismanagement of the past was greatly diminished.
Brazil emerged as a vibrant and robust democracy, with a very active civil society. While its economy has not quite reached its growth potential, it is important to note the taming of inflation — indeed hyper-inflation — that had plagued Brazil for decades. Most impressive has been the considerable social progress, which — all the more impressively — has now spanned two governments with opposing political viewpoints. While virtually the entire world is becoming more unequal, Brazil has become less so. This development is admittedly from a very high base (with one of the world’s worst Gini coefficients, which measures income inequality), but it is still important and impressive.
There is now a very sizeable emerging middle class and, thanks to a very effective program known as Bolsa Familia, which pays parents to keep their children in school, illiteracy rates have sharply diminished. On the basis of current trends, not only should Brazil achieve its potential in the 21st century, but it could well be destined to become one of the major global powers and potential multi-ethnic and socioeconomic role-models.
3. An Open-minded Japan?
Though Japan is hardly the focus of much global attention, potentially a very significant development occurred with this past summer’s election, which resulted in the end of the half-century rule of the LDP. Dominated by unreconstructed hawks, LDP premiers — especially Koizumi — seemingly enjoyed provoking China and Korea by paying regular homage to the spirits of Pacific War criminals at the Yasukuni Shrine. This posturing undermined any chance of long-term peace in North-East Asia. A number of actions taken by the country’s new Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama — such as having the Chinese Vice Premier Xi Jinping meet with the Emperor — would seem to indicate that at long last an important page may be turning, that we may be entering a “post-Yasukuni era,” and that constructive engagement between Japan and its neighbor might lay new and more solid foundations for peace in the region.
This could have immense positive global implications.
4. The EU’s (greatly) Expanded Democratic Space
The first decade of the 21st century has pretty well definitively rung the death-knell of Europe as a global force — or so the global thinking goes. Of course, while still accounting for 22% of world GDP generated by only 7% of world population, in many respects the EU will continue to be present. However, as the climate change conference in Copenhagen proved, its influence will wane. But it would be churlish in announcing the fading away of Europe not to recognize that one of the truly remarkable achievements during the first decade of the 21st century was the EU’s (greatly) expanded democratic space — not only for Europe, but also for the world — with the accession to membership of ten states.
These countries — Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria — until only recently had lived under the dictatorial yoke of the Soviet Union. Having seen towards the end of the previous century the accession of the erstwhile fascist states of Portugal and Spain, Europe in the beginning of the 21st century has established a huge market economy underpinned by an equally huge and strong democratic space. Throughout most of the 20th century, it would have been truly impossible to imagine such an outcome.
The fifth, truly global, accomplishment
The four achievements listed above all refer to geopolitical or geographic systemic transformations: the emergence of the G20 as the key global economic policy forum, the positive transformations in Brazil, the expansion of the European market and democratic space, the transition to a post-belligerence Japan. The fifth achievement transcends borders — and is therefore the most truly “global” achievement. And while it would be difficult to cite any African national development as an “achievement,” the spread of mobile telephony in Africa is making a big difference to the lives of millions upon millions of Africans, as well as in LDCs (least-developed countries), such as Bangladesh.
5. Cell Phones
At the beginning of the last decade, mobile telephones were seen as a tool (or plaything) of the rich, further contributing to the “digital divide.” It is absolutely staggering how deeply and extensively the mobile phone has spread, generating a connectivity and inclusivity greater than any technology past or present, improving the livelihoods of billions of people. A woman in a remote village in Bangladesh is now able to call her husband working on a construction site in UAE to tell him that she has given birth to a little girl and that both she and the baby are well, bringing joy to all. This kind of communication has been replicated hundreds of millions of times. Of course, mobile telephony has also contributed to enhanced opportunities for increasing productivity and higher incomes.
In conclusion
These are difficult times, fraught with dangers. It would be wise to expect that the next decade may witness a few unexpected disasters. A major economic crisis in China, for example, cannot be ruled out. War between Pakistan and India hangs like a spectre over a not necessarily too distant horizon. The United States' inability to extricate itself from Afghanistan — or Iraq — while Iran expands its (nuclear?) power. And so on. Building on the five achievements of the past decade, however, could generate a number of positive outcomes. Imagine the course of the decade to 2020 if the EU were able to grant accession to Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and the Balkan countries of Serbia, Kosovo, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Albania and Montenegro. Then the 21st century could witness not the decline of Europe, but its revitalization. Brazil’s continued socio-economic and political progress could have a positive impact and influence on the Latin American region and possibly beyond. The G20 could lay the basis for a new global governance architecture. As to developments in and applications of information and communication technology, these could continue to be an engine for inclusive growth and thereby significantly reduce the current unacceptable global levels of poverty.
* Jean-Pierre Lehmann is professor of International Political Economy at IMD — a leading international business school, based in Lausanne, Switzerland. He also is an adviser to WTO Director General, Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi.
By: N. Peter Kramer
