Innovation
The ICT sector does not seem to be short of innovative ideas. 20 years ago no-one could guess the revolution led by Internet and mobile communication services. What does the sector have in store for the next 20 years – where do you think there is more potential for development and growth?
Twenty years is a very long time in today's pace of technological development. But to try to answer the question, we need to forecast customer equipment developments, as by then everything will be 'on-line'.
There will certainly be increased use of mobile devices (eg, smart phones, new generation PDAs, etc.) which will be accessible through a myriad of 'access networks'.
And there will be office/home devices (eg computer devices, video screens, and all manner of normally passive devices that would be telemetred through pervasive transponders everywhere), as practically everything will be ultimately 'on-net'.
Accordingly the future internet infrastructure is the one that can service all these various customer needs, at acceptable quality and least cost. We can segment these into customer premises nodes, which would provide the connectivity through access points (e.g. home and office gateways); building or neighborhood systems; or traditional cellular coverage, in both pico/micro formations.
In high density areas and immediate suburbs, I believe cable-based technology will carry the highest share of this traffic, which by that time will be mostly fibre-based, though hybrid fibre/copper, fibre/coax networks would still be around in many countries I believe, even in next couple of decades, with FTTH (fiber to the home) only in deregulated countries, where regulators learned their lessons early (eg, USA).
In lower density areas, wireless technologies would dominate, as they would be more cost effective, and they are certainly the only effective means of bridging the digital divide.
In a nutshell, all access will be wireless, but the notion of 'backbone' from the currently 'distant' cellular base stations, into the 'home' (e.g. home gateways, femtocells, or other access technology connecting from cable side); the 'office' (e.g. office LANs, or other manner of access points, also connected through cable access); neighborhood cells (pico-cells, femto-cells, with mixed access technologies, but increasingly wireless..), so that effectively cellular coverage areas from mobile networks will keep getting smaller and smaller, with increased capacity needs. I believe fixed line networks and cable networks (such as current cable TV networks) will act more like 'backbone' networks at all access levels, with flat fees, and all communications being IP based, and near-unlimited usage.
Mobile operators have some advantages due to the flexibility of wireless network design. However, with increased traffic density and density in bandwidth demand (ie high concentration of bandwidth needs per unit area), I don't believe they can serve as 'primary' access, so they will cover the mobile part of usage, namely outside home/office/hotspot locations. They will need a strong "transmission backbone", to carry all the 'accessed' traffic to their core network, and will get better value from the mobile part, than trying to penetrate these segments 'technologically'.
So the challenge of 'full' mobile networks would be to provide high quality services in high density areas, and of course, to do so cost-effectively. This will mean new spectral assignments, in lower frequency bands, which provide better indoor penetration, but suffers limited bandwidth availability. The laws of physics will be pushed to their theoretical limit.
However, in low density areas, wireless technologies will have a great advantage, and can provide high growth in service utilization by customers, in currently 'under-served' areas. This is critical for bridging the digital divide, and opening new growth, as opposed to competing for the same customers amongst the various operators.
As to content, and related VASs, clearly mobile devices will become far more dominant over time, so that 'handhelds' would provide high resolution screens (which can compensate for their smaller sizes), equipped with all manner of user-friendly content-conveyance and uses.
In addition, mobile devices would have ubiquitous information exchange with all manner of home/office devices, so that all services are easily transferable to computers, main/side screens, transponders/controllers, etc.
I am curious what the new keyboard/keypad technologies would look like, as our hands and fingers aren't biologically capable of typing/keying at the speed of life at those times. It reminds of Bill Gates' title 'Business @ the speed of Thought'. I guess then, it would 'Life at the speed of Thought'. I can just imagine that all will be very 'smart, predictive, personalized and flexible', in addition to cross-device ubiquity, with much improved battery life of course, and also cordless/ batteries (i.e. no need to connect it to anything for recharging to these next generation devices).
The question remains, however, which will be the most successful networks to carry that traffic, and process the related user transactions, which will be very complex, and yet demand the ultimate in 'user-friendliness' and personalized services. That's where the competition will be, as it will be a fully converged world, in terms of networks and services.
Broadband
How should a balance be struck between encouraging private investment in new broadband networks and guaranteeing access to the network to safeguard competition?
As of today and the current technology, broadband still seems to be an expensive investment. Moreover, if the services to be utilized are not sufficient, it has a certain risk, too. If and when any operator starts establishing a broadband infrastructure, other operators in line to benefit from this should contribute to the investment, so that the system functions better. If this is not possible, and only one entrepreneur bears all the investment costs, with others ready to benefit from the system but not taking any risks, will discourage those who want to invest. Because if any risk emerges, the investor will suffer the loss in the end.
Another issue is to estimate who will utilize the broadband services and when, as well as with the optimum service / expenditure balance for the network investment that constitutes the infrastructure. Making use of the resources appropriately must be one of the critical principles of Broadband investment.
Sustainability
Business performance is increasingly being measured by sustainability credentials. What role can New Generation Networks play in providing more sustainable telecoms services?
The infrastructures held by fixed line operators were formed through the years by laying physical cables and switchboards to the most distant regions. This infrastructure, or namely the current resource, may be used for many years to come, by modifying to be compatible with new demands, new trends and new technologies. Whether mobile or fixed, all backbone networks that deliver the data to the end user must be enhanced to handle the increasing traffic as a result of growing Broadband Applications and Services.
Pervasive (widespread) Internet access, video-based services, convergence applications, “business and legacy” business models that require intense data transfer are the key reasons for the increasing traffic. The infrastructure to carry the increasing traffic for all types of networks in the future can only be realized with New Generation Networks (NGN). Operators getting ready today and forming the NGN infrastructure to handle both mobile and fixed data load traffic for the future, will ensure the sustainability of current operations and, accordingly, services.
As a matter of fact, we have realized the Rural Transformation Project and have changed all of our 10.274 telephone stations in districts, villages and fields all around Turkey with Multi-Service Access Nodes (MSAN) in phase with the Next Generation Network Architecture. Supporting this, Metro-DWDM transmission systems were started being constructed in 2008 with the aim of developing the transmission infrastructure in the metropolitan area, meeting the increasing capacity needs and using the fiber optic cable infrastructure in the most effective way. We are also continuing transforming our copper lines to fiber, in order to deliver better quality internet access, to offer applications that require more bandwidth and provide services in a broader geography. Under this project, internet infrastructure is transformed to fiber optic in 3.300 locations.
The European Commission has presented the Pan-European Regulation Draft for broadband service networks with ‘Next Generation Access’ infrastructure to public opinion last June. This draft, which also includes recommendations on the transition from copper to fiber reveals that, the common solution for sustainable business performance is possible by NGN infrastructure and, with necessary regulations provided, a faster, low-risk and effective transformation to an Information Society can be accomplished.
Piracy
In its recently published Digital Competitiveness Report, the European Commission estimated that online piracy accounts for 95% of music tracks and 80% of movies downloaded. Some countries, notably France, are considering laws to cut off internet access for repeat offenders. Do you think antipiracy solutions should come from regulation or can business models effectively address the issues?
Successful examples that both protect copyright and meet consumer demands can set a model to resolve this issue. Take Turkey’s Internet service provider TTNET, under our Turk Telekom Group, that started the TTNET Music portal service to protect the rights of artists and has a great impact to distribute legal on-line music. TTNET is in a joint collaboration with artist guilds and associations like MU-YAP, MSG, MESAM and MUYORBIR for copyright protection and all music hosted by TTNET Music can be legally downloaded. TTNET has now come up with a sound solution for an ongoing issue, both protecting the artists and enhancing the penetration of copyrighted music. Because with DRM means preventing illicit sharing of music and other artistic assets.
TTNET Music is a value added service by TTNET, offering more than 300,000 songs, all of which can be listened to and downloaded legally from the Internet. Audiophiles have welcomed the service with great enthusiasm and as of August they have downloaded 18 million songs and listened to an astonishing 62,492,483. We believe that with similar initiatives, such issues and problems can be resolved.
Consumers
Is EU consumer group BEUC right to be worried about safeguarding net neutrality for consumers, so that internet service providers cannot limit their choice of content, application and services online?
This is an issue of consent between content, application and service producers and service providers. Governments and regulatory bodies can come up with guidelines.
Next generation mobile standards
The European Commission is actively promoting and funding the development of the Long Term Evolution (LTE) standard for next generation mobiles, and major mobile manufacturers and operators are committed to using it. How do you see the prospects for market uptake of LTE and what advantages do you think it offers?
Various services and products that add value to customers are appearing and more will come in the following years. LTE will be a complementary technology to the recent solutions, bringing the mobile networks to the next level and enabling the customers communicate faster.
LTE will be available for users as an extension of GSM from past to present. In other words, any LTE device should be compatible with preceding technologies, because LTE is the final step in the evolution of GSM. This actually brings many advantages. There are more than 700 GSM / WCDMA operators with approximately 4 billion subscribers worldwide, and they will continue using the majority of their current infrastructure. Both operators and users will experience a soft transition to LTE, because their current devices will be compatible with new devices using the LTE technology. Neither the operators, nor the users will leave their assets aside at once and switch to another system. The success of LTE depends on how much it will meet expectations. Operators will have an investment point of view, while users will consider criteria like service, quality, and speed, choice of terminals, roaming penetration and coverage area width. GSM was a European project, and in the 20 years elapsed, GSM evolved to become LTE, based on OFDM technology, for services with high demand on broadband and still keeping the European roots. The contribution to LTE’s development creates an opportunity to take a step forth to lead the industry for Europe, since it has been slowing down in mobile communications in the recent years. This can provide technological superiority and can attribute the leading role to a dynamic business like communications industry to get out of the economic crisis.
