A drama called Hollande and the advance of the far right

by N. Peter Kramer

Since 1958, when polling by the independent institution Ifop started, there has never been such an enormous gap between a President and his Prime-Minister. The socialist Hollande scored only 18% (a 5% fall in the last month), the prime minister he appointed a few weeks ago 58%. 

In a poll by Le Figaro, French voters were asked to repeat the Presidential election of 2012. The President didn’t even survive the first round (19% of the votes), former President Sarkozy got 29% and far-right Marine Le Pen (Front National) 25%. In a second round center-right Sarkozy (UMP) had 67% against Le Pen 33%. Participants in the poll were also asked to give their ‘vote’ for a second round between Hollande and Le Pen. The President got only 54% against 46% for the leader of the Front National. A match between Sarkozy and Hollande, repeating the real elections in 2014, ended in a clear victory for the former President, 61%, against only 39% for Hollande. 

Of course, we are looking at results of opinion polls. But anyhow the drama called Hollande is complete:  beaten by his own Prime-Minister and by his former antagonist. The appointment of the socialist Manual Valls, called ‘Sarkozy of the left’ for his tough language and quite rightish ideas, did not boost President Hollande. Most significant of all Le Figaro called the ‘real drama’, the trend of continuing growth in sympathy among French voters for the far right FN. The campaign of its leader Marine Le Pen cuts ice. The weekly Nouvel Observateur found out in another poll that the far-right remains in the lead to win next month’ European elections in France. If the elections had taken place on Sunday 13 April, Front National would have won 24% of the votes, just ahead of the centre-right UMP (23%) and the ruling Parti Socialiste (21%) of President Hollande.