Top Kazak official moves to counter "pessimistic" scenario of Afghanistan after troop pull-out

by Martin Banks

In an exclusive interview, Erlan Idrissov called on the international community,including the European Union, to take steps to avoid further violence breaking out after the transfer of security control in 2014.

He said the situation involving Afghanistan and especially what will happen after the US and allied forces withdraw from the country in 2014, was "clearly" currently a subject "uppermost" in the minds of many people.

Idrissov, who was speaking during a short visit to Brussels on Wednesday, said that "regional integration" and "international cooperation" were the “key” to stabilizing Afghanistan.

He said, "There are two scenarios for Afghanistan and one of them is that it will descend into chaos when the International Security Assistance Force withdraws. If that happens it would clearly be a huge blow.”

He added, "However, I totally disagree with the frequently expressed pessimistic view that chaos and violence inevitably await Afghanistan after the withdrawal of forces in 2014. This sort of prognosis is dangerous. It can become a self-fulfilling prophecy by making us all think that there is no hope for Afghanistan."

Idrissov, a former Kazakhstan ambassador to the US and UK, added, "Instead, I am optimistic that with the right level of assistance from its friends and neighbours and through the creation of a peaceful environment in its immediate neighbourhood, Afghanistan can overcome its historical isolation and take its rightful place in the “heart of Asia”.

He said Afghanistan was "central" to the security of the whole Central Asian region and that his own country remains "very willing" to take an active role in encouraging a peaceful and positive outcome to the situation in its war-torn neighbour.

Kazakhstan, he pointed out, had put forward a proposal that Almaty become a hub for multilateral diplomacy for the United Nations, focusing on Afghanistan and the region as a whole.

Irrespective of this, it remains important, he insists, to increase the level of regional cooperation and coordination ahead of the transfer of security control next year.

The overall aim, he argues, should be to "accelerate and strengthen" regional contributions to developing a stable Afghanistan.

“Yes, there are threats, risks and challenges ahead but these, I believe, can be largely averted if all the necessary steps are taken ahead of the pullout.The withdrawal of forces should be seen as the start of a process, not the end.”

Turning to his country´s relations with the EU, he urged the 28-member bloc to take full advantage of the "untapped" potential his country offers.

As a region, Europe represents Kazakhstan’s biggest trading partner. In 2012 there was a trade balance of USD 53 billion between Kazakhstan and EU member states, representing 45% of Kazakhstan’s trade turnover.

Half of the foreign investment which Kazakhstan has attracted in the last few years, some USD 80 billion, has come from EU countries, he recalled.

While the relationship was “healthy”, in particular with countries like Germany and France, Idrissov said Kazakhstan still offered "much untapped" potential for the EU and its member states.

He said, “The EU is a crucially important partner for my country and we enjoy a diverse relationship with member states on issues such as greening of the economy, energy and regional security.This is important both for us and the EU and I hope that we can continue to build on the road to Europe.”

He was in Brussels to attend the EU Cooperation Council and for an update on the Enhanced Partnership Agreement (EPA) with his country.

He said 70 per cent of the EPA had already been agreed and that he expects the agreement to be signed sometime next year, unlocking the possibility of much greater cooperation between the EU and Kazakhstan.

“I hope this can be signed as soon as possible and that next year’s European elections will not be an obstacle to this,” he said.

Other bilateral issues of interest to the two sides include the simplification of the visa regime, improving and activating links in areas of external security, science, innovation and new technologies, plus regional security issues.

His comments about the EU come after European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso recently said that the EU "greatly supports" Kazakhstan's strategy of economic diversification and its focus on green growth.

With the EU also pursuing a sustainable growth strategy, Barroso, on a recent visit to Kazakhstan also said that there is a lot of potential for cooperation between Kazakhstan and Europe on renewables and energy efficiency.

On the ongoing talks in Geneva over Iran´s controversial nuclear enrichment programme, Idrissov said he hoped these continue in a “constructive manner” leading to a speedy "normalisation" of relations between Tehran and the international community.

He pointed out that his country was in the early 1990s the world´s fourth biggest nuclear power and, today, remains the world´s biggest supplier of uranium.

But he said it had rid itself of its nuclear weapons and was now a "staunch" supporter of nuclear disarmament.

"We believe in the peaceful use of nuclear power and hope Iran can come back into the international fold," he said.

The foreign minister also admitted that when it comes to human rights, his country was still a "work in progress."

He said, "You have to remember we are still a relatively young democracy and that is only 22 years since we gained independence. A fully fledged democracy for us is not a starting point but the end of the road.

"We are trying to build a modern democracy that is also sustainable. We are certainly getting there, for example, we hope to join the WTO next year. There has been enormous progress but it is still something of a work in progress."

In a wide ranging interview that touched on foreign and domestic issues, he also said he believes it will be in the interests of Ukraine to sign an Association Agreement with the EU at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on 29 November.

However, he cautioned that this must not be done in a way that will “disrupt” Ukraine’s relations with Russia.

On energy, Idrissov, who also served as deputy foreign minister, said Kazakhstan had an “open, transparent” policy which “does not favour the East (China) or the West (Europe and the US).”