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Inquiries concerning a bloody and stagy coup

"Is the Islamist president of Turkey determined to go to great lengths, in order to consolidate his power and ensure his permanency?

By: Athanase Papandropoulos - Posted: Wednesday, July 20, 2016

A coup which, as has been shown from its live broadcast, had an operatic status, bloody dramatic of course and which, concluded to the Turkish president’s absolute domination and his enemies’ extermination.
A coup which, as has been shown from its live broadcast, had an operatic status, bloody dramatic of course and which, concluded to the Turkish president’s absolute domination and his enemies’ extermination.

by Athanase Papandropoulos 

“It was a blessing from Allah”, was the statement of the Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan when he was sure enough that he had the situation under his control and that he could, finally for him, step forward regarding the massive purges that he desired so much in the army and the justice. Nevertheless, with this statement the Islamist Turkish president raises many questions, which already concern Americans, Europeans and Russians.

The first question is about, how possible is the coup of the 15th of July, finally to be or not part of a Tayyip Erdogan’s wider plan, by using some naïve military commanders (who are now paying the cost). For some people this conspiratorial version seems to be childish, and this is justifiable. But with a deeper sight it doesn’t seem so… For some time now, many close presidential consulters were negative disposed to the Erdogan’s leaks to the army and they were afraid that the president was about to fight with a tiger, which after many years of outrageous treatment, in a given time, would be more savage and vengeful. So, it is quite possible, that Erdogan’s environment would created, through a well-designed disinformation system, the sensation of ripe conditions for the actualization of a coup, a rumor which was floating for a long time. 

A coup which, as has been shown from its live broadcast, had an operatic status, bloody dramatic of course and which, concluded to the Turkish president’s absolute domination and his enemies’ extermination.

But, why Tayyip Erdogan evoked a plausible coup against himself? Because, merely, this development serves his great ottoman plan, which is his eminence in the Islamic world. In this context, the Turkish president essentially worries because of the Islamic State’s collapse and this is why he wants to reanimate it. The ISIS is a fundamental blackmailing and strategic weapon for his plans, despite the known tragic incidents.

As they are pointing out in their analyses for the “Foreign Affairs”, Pantelis Sklavos, professor of the University of Peloponnese and Antonis Klapsis, coordinator of the Center of International and European Political Economy and Governance, after its rise to power, in 2002, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party, the Party of Justice and Development, happened a gradual but important change concerning the international orientation of Ankara.

Erdogan and his collaborators were supporting the espousal of a more flexible and energetic foreign policy. Thus, the famous viewpoints and theories of Ahmet Davutoglu, who has been marginalized, had an important role to this direction. The main aim of this new foreign policy was the promotion of Turkey to a major power, not just in a regional level of the Middle East, but also in the wider area of Eurasia, or even in worldwide level. Due to his Islamic background, Erdogan wanted to see Turkey as the leader of the Islamic world. Regarding the success of his government in the field of economy, it actually facilitated his ambitious plans in the field of foreign policy. 
Taking account of the above facts, the pro-western orientation of the Turkish foreign policy, seemed to be absolutely ensured. Even though, this impression was based on three deceptive cases.

First of all, Erdogan was implementing an economic policy which, on the one hand, was considered as liberal from the West and, on the other hand, was creating a new westernized elite. Despite this, the economic miracle of the Turkish prime minister had at that time inherent limitations, which are reflected for example, to the high pressure that the Turkish lira was receiving. At the same time, the westernized wealthy elite were just a tiny part of the total population, which in the majority hadn’t reaped the economic benefits. This fact is reflected also to the electoral geography. The most wealthy and cosmopolitan west Turkish regions at the coasts of the Aegean do not support the Party of Justice and Development. Instead, Erdogan’s party preponderates with a big odd in the interior of Anatolia, excluding the Kurdish regions where the Kurdish party formations have the majority (most recently the People’s Democratic Party HPD). The Erdogan’s electoral basis was and remains the most conservative and adherent to the Islam proportion of the Turkish people.  

Secondly, Erdogan’s success was welcomed from the West, as an exemplar of an Islamic type of democracy, which perhaps could be extracted also to other countries of the Middle East. However, Erdogan was building actually an ad personam semi-authoritarian regime of a controlled type democracy, under which the infringement of the human rights, the attempt for manipulation of the media, the containment of the freedom of speech, the attempt for suppression of every contesting voice and the violent repression of protestations against the government are daily occurrence. 

Thirdly, from the geopolitical aspect, Davutoglu’s doctrine for zero problems with the Turkey’s neighbors prevailed. Taking for granted, its sturdy economy and the Erdogan’s Islamic profile, the significance of Ankara as an ally of West in the Middle East was being enhanced. Nevertheless, Erdogan was aiming the launch of a new-ottoman style foreign policy, which would restore the Turkey’s role as a regional overlord. As expected, this attitude led to conflict with other countries of the region.
In this framework, the pro-western orientation of Turkey started gradually being less stable. The consequence of the Islamic roots of Erdogan proved decisive regarding the way which he treated the Arab Spring. The Turkish government supported openly the Islamic movements, like the movement of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. 

Even worse, Turkey maintained a discrete attitude over the creation of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Ankara confronted this situation with much rapport, not just because of its religious background, but more because it was considered, as an effective tool for the decrease of the Kurdish impact in the regions of Iraq and Syria, which are bordering on Turkey. According to the Turkish leadership’s perception, the Islamic State was much more preferable than the creation of a quasi independent Kurdish state either in Iraq, or Syria (or, even worse, in both countries), because a state like this would cause similar pursuits to the Kurds of Turkey. 

However, the Turkish interests were often completely opposed to those of the West. Aftermath of this contradiction has been the espousal of an ambivalent policy from the part of Ankara. So, ostensibly, Turkey joins partly the West concerning the fight against the Islamic State, enabling for example American aircrafts to operate against it, from bases which are on Turkish territory. Nevertheless, at the same time, the Turkish air force bombards almost exclusively the positions of the Kurdish fighters in Syria, although it is well-known that the Kurds are among the most important opponents of the Islamic State in the area. 

In this way the Turkish government actually undermines the West’s strategy and this is happening during a period, when this strategy has positive results. However, those results they do not keep up with the new-ottoman visualizations of the Turkish president, who is immersing in a nonesuch corruption. 

Now, after the abortive coup, Erdogan is the dominant of the game and he could easily blackmail the West. Turkey is evolving to a crucial problem for the peace and the geopolitics of our area and most probably, will lead to serious revisions…

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