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Europeans have been disappointingly limited militarily in relation to Ukraine, but their defence outreach is set to be surprisingly daunting. Whether wearing NATO or EU hats, their armed forces have been constrained more by politics than by operational weaknesses. A ‘no-fly’ policy to prevent Russian air attacks or ‘tripwire forces’ on Ukraine’s eastern borders of ‘tripwire forces’ have been deadlocked by political wrangling rather than practical barriers.

The EU must define its red lines in a tough new security doctrine

Realpolitik, greatly enhanced by television, has in recent weeks sent an embarrassing message around the world – the European Union isn’t the global player it claims to be

The EU is still so dependent on Chinese raw materials that it cannot take a stand against China’s dumping on the EU market. This dependence also prevents the EU from going against China’s support for Russia in the war in Ukraine. Result, China’s trade surplus with the European Union has increased by almost 20 percent since December last year.

One year after the Draghi report: China’s trade surplus increased by almost 20 percent

At the presentation of his 400-page report in September 2024, Mario Draghi said, the EU will face a ‘slow death’ if it doesn’t quickly close the gap with economic superpowers such as the United States and China

Yet deep differences remain. Starmer’s government has been a staunch supporter of Kyiv, imposing sanctions on Russia and supplying military and humanitarian aid. This contrasts with Trump’s more transactional stance, marked by scepticism over continued funding for Ukraine and a desire for a quick peace deal.

The not-so-special relationship: Trump’s state visit to the UK

En amour, il y a toujours un qui embrasse et un qui tend la joue.” In love, there is always one who kisses and one who offers the cheek. The French might have written that line with the Anglo-American “special relationship” in mind: a partnership since the end of the Second World War where affection is rarely equal and loyalty often flows one way

Regrettably, despite Taiwan’s significant global contributions, it remains largely unrecognized by the international community and is unable to participate in the United Nations system. Taiwan’s unwarranted exclusion stems from China’s deliberate misrepresentation of United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758. The resolution is falsely linked with the so-called “one China principle” and continues to be wrongfully weaponized to block Taiwan’s participation.

“Chip in with Taiwan” for Global Peace and Prosperity

Today, the world faces mounting uncertainties and challenges—from prolonged conflicts and democratic backsliding to economic coercion and disinformation campaigns

This time Belarus insists it has nothing to hide.Representatives of 23 states, including the US, Turkey and Hungary, watched the military exercise."We consider that the exercise is unprecedented in its transparency," Major General Valery Revenko, assistant to the Belarusian defence minister, told journalists at the training ground.

Belarus and Russia’s show of firepower appears to be a message to Europe

In a large field 45 miles (72km) from Belarus’ capital Minsk, a battle is raging

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Europe needs to adjust quickly to the fact that the new U.S. interventionism in European domestic politics is a feature, not a bug, of a politically reshaped America. European political actors must move quickly beyond their surprise at such actions and converge soon around a common stance of principled objection, while considering what further steps they can employ both in terms of their own communication strategies and legal and regulatory responses.

World

A Less Democratic America: Implications for Europe

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Since his return to power, U.S. President Donald Trump has relentlessly questioned and challenged democracy at home and abroad. In an increasingly illiberal world, the U.S. withdrawal from democratic leadership offers Europe a chance to step up by reenergizing its global purpose, forging new alliances, and championing values of unity

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And here’s the paradox: that very pressure creates opportunity. When big organizations stall under their own weight, small, lean, tech-savvy players can enter supply chains and replace rotting structures. Not because they have better slogans, but because they can actually deliver under today’s constraints.

Analyses

Defaults, disruption, and the dilemma of offshore energy: Are we chasing the right future?

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

We like to think history moves with explosions: wars, pandemics, market crashes. In reality, the deepest changes arrive quietly

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Putin’s attack on Poland happened to occur on the eve of the annual State of the Union address by the EU Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, to MEPs. She proposed that the EU funds what she called a “drone wall” and a space surveillance system for Europe’s Northeastern flank with Russia including the Baltic states and Poland.

World

Putin tries it on with Poland and aims to drag Europe into his war of conquest

Monday, September 15, 2025

Russia’s war on Ukraine rekindles Poland’s centuries-old vigilance against Moscow’s aggression

more on World

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Bayrou took over from Michel Barnier last December after Barnier failed to get his budget through the Assembly.Bayrou managed to pass a budget thanks to a non-aggression pact with the Socialists, but their relations plunged when a conference on the latest pension reform failed to take account of Socialist demands.

Europe

France in fresh political crisis after MPs oust prime minister

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

France has been plunged into a new political crisis with the defeat of Prime Minister François Bayrou at a confidence vote in the National Assembly

He not only backed down from some landmark reforms but also started what became a signature method: throwing money at the problem, even though the money was growing increasingly unsustainable. He shielded the French from Covid-19’s inflationary shock in a unique way even in Europe, but it was financed with money Paris simply didn’t have. In many European quarters, despite his success in making France more attractive for foreign investment, Macron’s credibility—and ability to deliver—has struggled in the shadow of the Yellow Vests ever since.

Europe

Macron has a historic choice to make for France and Europe

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

France’s political instability and financial crisis are weakening both its own and the EU’s global influence. To prevent full paralysis, French President Emmanuel Macron faces a choice: either overhaul his method or face paralysis and destroy his legacy

But for Starmer, the threat comes from both sides. On the right, Reform is swallowing Conservative support. On the left, Labour risks leaking votes to the Greens or a potential new party led by former leader, Jeremy Corbyn. Britain’s political landscape is fragmenting, and Labour’s once-solid coalition is under strain.

Analyses

Things can only get worse? Starmer struggles as Farage shapes the agenda

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Barely a year in, Starmer’s premiership is already under pressure from the rapid rise of Farage and his party, Reform UK

And, as all politics is local, not awarding any peace prize this year would be a statement on what is happening to Norway, which is a hot new Cold War in the Arctic on its — and NATO’s — border with Putin’s Russia.Most Norwegians, in a recent poll, said they expect a new conflict in Europe. The Peace Research Institute of Oslo’s survey shows a rise in fear of war among Norwegians.

Analyses

Nobel Peace Prizes: The inside story

Monday, September 8, 2025

If you are the United States Ambassador to Norway, as I was from 1993 to 1998, the politics of the Nobel Peace Prize comes to your inbox every October when the prize recipient is announced by the Nobel Committee

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Around sixty people, including opposition politicians, street demonstrators, and the editor of an independent newspaper, are now in jail. They are essentially political prisoners. The country’s foreign-influence law is starting to curtail the activities of Georgia’s once-thriving nongovernmental sector.

World

Time for EU decisions on Georgia

Thursday, September 4, 2025

Away from the daily headlines, Georgia’s rapid retreat from democracy continues apace. This fall could be crucial in determining whether and how Europe can push back and impose costs on those who are taking the country backward

more on World

Trust, once broken, is hard to restore. Modi’s refusal to take Trump’s calls and his photo-ops with Xi and Putin reflect a deeper unease. Even if tariffs ease, suspicion will remain that Washington could change course at any moment.This is a real chance for the EU to present itself as consistent, dependable and, above all, predictable — something the US no longer offers. In a world where personality clashes can upend years of diplomacy, the EU can be the partner that keeps its head.

Analyses

End of the Trump–Modi Bromance: What It Means for India, China and the EU

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

The fallout between Trump and Modi has shaken US–India ties, but this could hand Brussels its best chance in years to develop a deeper partnership with New Delhi

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An unambitious EU target would also provide a convenient excuse for major global emitters—like China or India—to underdeliver on their own targets, severely complicating the world’s efforts to contain the negative repercussions of climate change that are becoming a daily occurrence.

Europe

The EU’s 2040 target is about much more than just climate

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

The EU’s ambition to slash carbon emissions by 90 percent by 2040 is challenged by internal divisions and global turmoil. But this target must cement a new era of European climate action, linked to innovation, competitiveness, and security.

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There’s a hybrid of national ‘red’ bonds to be converted over time into common ‘blue’ bonds that could cut borrowing costs. Another possibility is sovereign bond-backed securities (SBBS), which would bundle EU member states’ national bonds together with other certifiably safe assets to make an attractive new investment package. There are also innovative financial products based on the digital euro, which EU policymakers already back as a way to free European consumers from US-owned credit cards.

Europe

The time is ripe for Eurobonds as Trump’s dollar weakens

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

The havoc created by Donald Trump’s assault on the global economy is reviving calls for Eurobonds that would challenge the increasingly unstable US dollar as a safe haven.

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Marine Le Pen is leading calls for a new dissolution of the National Assembly, which under the constitution is now possible. No second dissolution was allowed within a year of the first which meant that until July there was no way out of the parliamentary impasse.

Europe

France heads for political crisis as PM Bayrou risks all on confidence vote

Monday, September 1, 2025

France is on the brink of another political crisis, after Prime Minister François Bayrou’s shock decision to submit his government to a vote of confidence in parliament

more on Europe

EU Actually

One year after the Draghi report: China’s trade surplus increased by almost 20 percent

N. Peter KramerBy: N. Peter Kramer

At the presentation of his 400-page report in September 2024, Mario Draghi said, the EU will face a ‘slow death’ if it doesn’t quickly close the gap with economic superpowers such as the United States and China

Europe

The EU must define its red lines in a tough new security doctrine

The EU must define its red lines in a tough new security doctrine

Realpolitik, greatly enhanced by television, has in recent weeks sent an embarrassing message around the world – the European Union isn’t the global player it claims to be

Business

The Next Chapter: Governance and Growth for Global South families

The Next Chapter: Governance and Growth for Global South families

In much of the Global South, family-owned businesses are not a side story

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